Endoscopy 2020; 52(S 01): S173
DOI: 10.1055/s-0040-1704534
ESGE Days 2020 ePoster Podium presentations
Friday, April 24, 2020 11:00 – 11:30 Lower GI bleeding 1 ePoster Podium 7
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DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A RISK SCORING MODEL FOR EARLY PREDICTION OF SEVERE ISCHEMIC COLITIS

HS Moon
1   Chungnam National University Hospital, Chungnam National University School of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of
,
MY Shin
1   Chungnam National University Hospital, Chungnam National University School of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of
,
JH Park
1   Chungnam National University Hospital, Chungnam National University School of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of
› Author Affiliations
Further Information

Publication History

Publication Date:
23 April 2020 (online)

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    Aims Ischemic colitis(IC) is considered to be an intestinal injury as a result of insufficient blood flow and clinical severities of IC can range from mild to life-threatening emergency.

    Methods In a retrospective study, we analyzed medical records of patients with IC admitted to Chungnam National University Hospital from January 2010 to December 2018. We defined patients with severe IC if they need for surgery either immediately or after initial conservative management, if death occcured after hospitalization, if symptoms persist after 2 weeks. By using the possible confounders from the estimated logistic regression analysis, we obtained a new risk scoring model for early prediction of severe IC. Also using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), we assessed accuracy of our new risk scoring model.

    Results A total of 274 patients with endoscopic evaluated IC were included. Of the patients, 181 (66.1%) were classified as severe IC. In a multivariate analysis, following factors were independently and significantly associated with severe IC: tachycardia (adjusted odds ratio(OR), 8.591; 95% confidence interval(CI), 2.199–33.569; p = 0.002), elevated C-reactive protein (OR, 3.812; 95% CI, 2.083–6.976; p > 0.001), Favier endoscopic classification ≥ Stage 2 (OR, 3.736; 95% CI, 2.070–6.743; p > 0.001), and history of hypertension (OR, 1.946, 95% CI, 1.097–3.454; p = 0.02). The AUROC of our new risk scoring model to predict severe outcome of IC was 0.749 (95% CI, 0.694–0.800; p > 0.001).

    Conclusions A risk scoring model based on presence of tachycardia, elevated C-reactive protein, unfavorable endoscopic finding by Favier’s classification and history of hypertension could be used to prefict the severe outcome of IC in early stage.


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