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CC BY 4.0 · Rev Bras Ginecol Obstet 2020; 42(06): 305-309
DOI: 10.1055/s-0040-1713795
Editorial
Thieme Revinter Publicações Ltda Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

COVID-19 and Assisted Reproduction: A Point of View on the Brazilian Scenario

Bruno Ramalho de Carvalho 
1   Hospital Sírio-Libanês, Brasília, DF, Brazil
,
Ana Carolina Japur de Sá Rosa-e-Silva 
2   Departamento de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil
,
Rui Alberto Ferriani 
2   Departamento de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil
,
Rosana Maria dos Reis 
2   Departamento de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil
,
Marcos Felipe Silva de Sá 
2   Departamento de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil
› Author Affiliations
Further Information

Publication History

Publication Date:
30 June 2020 (online)

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The Epidemic of COVID-19 in Brazil and Worldwide

The world is experiencing a pandemic with no recent similar events, caused by the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Since December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed about the first cases of pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China,[1] the disease (COVID-19) spread rapidly through the whole planet. According to the WHO, on May 24, 2020, the world had already confirmed 5,204,508 COVID-19 cases, with a total of 337,687 deaths.[2] In Brazil, on that date, the Ministry of Health had already registered more 363,211 confirmed cases and 22,666 deaths.[3]

Indeed, the WHO warns of the need for caution in interpreting available data, since the sources of information are diverse, as well as the inclusion criteria and other variables may diverge, ultimately resulting in eventual underestimations of the numbers of cases and deaths in each country.[2] However, based on observations from previous epidemics caused by other respiratory viruses, and using specific indicators to measure the transmissibility of the new coronavirus and the clinical severity of COVID-19, preliminary data released in China appear to be sufficient to place the current pandemic on the scale of major epidemics recorded in history, comparable only to the 1918 influenza pandemic, also known as the Spanish flu pandemic.[4]

In order to predict an epidemiological behavior to the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical projections appear as a forecasting tool, far from perfect, but viable and perfectly acceptable in a time of uncertainty. It is understood that the projections allow authorities and health services to prepare initial action plans, with due attention being paid to frequent monitoring, given the potentially mutable dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the rapid change of scenarios. Of note, such characteristics hinder the extrapolation of information from one country to another.

According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the curve of the epidemic in Brazil is on a plateau and the country will have more than 190 thousand new infections daily by SARS-CoV-2 between May 14 and June 21, 2020. Consequently, it is estimated that we will have at least 800 deaths per day by COVID-19 between May 23 and July 30, 2020. Undeniably, the projection of that institute draws attention to the total number of deaths from the disease in the country, estimated to be of 88,305 until August 4, 2020, varying from about 33 thousand in the best scenario to more than 190 thousand lost lives in the worst perspective. That is an estimative greater than the sum of projected deaths for Italy and Spain together, which is to be expected, once the number of intensive care beds demanded (more than 8 thousand) already exceeds the number of beds offered in the country for treatment of COVID-19 (about 4 thousand).[5]