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DOI: 10.1055/a-2439-5200
Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline is Causally Associated with Acute Pulmonary Embolism: A Nested Case–Control and Mendelian Randomization Study
Funding This study is supported by the National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding 2024-NHLHCRF-JBGS-WZ- 09; The National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFC2507200); Beijing Hospital Clinical Research 121 Project (BJ-2019-197); National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding, Elite Medical Professionals, Project of China-Japan Friendship Hospital (ZRJY2023- QM20); Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (2021-I2M-1-061, 2021-I2M-1-001, 2023-I2M-2-001); CAMS Institute of Respiratory Medicine Grant for Young Scholars (2023-ZF-8), Non-Profit Central Research Institute Fund of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (2021-RC310-016), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Excellent Youth Scholars Program), National Natural Science Foundation of China (82270062, 31920103011, 31770829, 32171443), State Key Laboratory Special Fund 2060204(2060204), Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation (7242096), Beijing Hospital Clinical Research 121 Project (BJ-2019-197), the National Laboratory of Biomacromolecules, and the CAS Center of Excellence in Biomacromolecules.

Abstract
Background
Renal dysfunction is highly prevalent among patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). This study combined population-based study and Mendelian randomization (MR) to observe the relationship between renal function and PE.
Methods
A nested case–control study were performed using data of PE patients and controls were from two nationwide cohorts, the China pUlmonary thromboembolism REgistry Study (CURES) and China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS). Baseline characteristics were balanced using propensity score matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting. Restricted cubic spline models were applied for the relationship between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline and the risk of PE. Bidirectional two-sample MR analyses were performed using genome-wide association study summary statistics for eGFR involving 1,201,909 individuals and for PE from the FinnGen consortium.
Results
The nested case–control study including 17,547 participants (6,322 PE patients) found that eGFR distribution was significantly different between PE patients and controls (p < 0.001), PE patients had a higher proportion of eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. eGFR below 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 was associated with a steep elevation in PE risk. MR analyses indicated a potential causal effect of eGFR decline on PE (odds ratio = 4·26, 95% confidence interval: 2·07–8·79), with no evidence of horizontal pleiotropy and reverse causality.
Conclusion
Our findings support the hypothesis that renal function decline contributes to an elevated PE risk. Together with the high prevalence of chronic kidney diseases globally, there arises the necessity for monitoring and modulation of renal function in effective PE prevention.
Keywords
pulmonary embolism - glomerular filtration rate - risk factors - causal inference - nested case–control study - Mendelian randomization analysis* These authors contributed equally to the article.
** These authors contributed equally to this work as corresponding authors.
Authors' Contribution
D.W., P.Y., Z.Zhai conceived and designed the study. Y.L., H.L., X.Z., Y.C. collected data. Y.L., H.L., G.F., H.Z., Z.H., H.W., H.H., X.L. analyzed and interpreted data. Y.L. and H.L. replicated the results of this article back-to-back. Y.L., H.L., D.W. and X.L. drafted the manuscript. Y.Z., F.X. contributed to the design and building of the CURES. X.L. provided profession of nephrology. X.L., P.Y., Z.Zhai, C.W. revised the manuscript. D.W. were the lead corresponding authors. All authors participated in the proofreading of the manuscript and provided final approval of the version to be published.
Publikationsverlauf
Eingereicht: 12. Mai 2024
Angenommen: 09. Oktober 2024
Accepted Manuscript online:
14. Oktober 2024
Artikel online veröffentlicht:
28. März 2025
© 2025. The Author(s). This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonDerivative-NonCommercial License, permitting copying and reproduction so long as the original work is given appropriate credit. Contents may not be used for commercial purposes, or adapted, remixed, transformed or built upon. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
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