Modeling the marathon and human endurance performances: some thoughts and what’s new?

Abstract

In 1991, I published a physiological model of marathon running performance. My model predicted that it might be possible for a human to run the marathon in less than 2 hours. In this article, I review the genesis of my thinking at that time, share my perspective about what has changed over the last 30 plus years, and speculate about what the future might hold.

Keywords

marathon - human performance - modeling

Publikationsverlauf

Eingereicht: 11. Januar 2025

Angenommen: 13. Februar 2025

Accepted Manuscript online:
13. Februar 2025

Artikel online veröffentlicht:
01. April 2025

• References

• 1 Joyner MJ. Modeling: Optimal marathon performance on the basis of physiological factors. J Appl Physiol (1985) 1991; 70: 683-687
• 2 Joyner MJ, Coyle EF. Endurance exercise performance: The physiology of champions. J Physiol 2008; 586: 35-44
• 3 Pollock ML. Submaximal and maximal working capacity of elite distance runners. Part I: Cardiorespiratory aspects. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1977; 301: 310-322
• 4 Conley DL, Krahenbuhl GS. Running economy and distance running performance of highly trained athletes. Med Sci Sports Exerc 1980; 12: 357-360
• 5 Costill DL, Thomason H, Roberts E. Fractional utilization of the aerobic capacity during distance running. Med Sci Sports 1973; 5: 248-252
• 6 Farrell PA, Wilmore JH, Coyle EF, Billing JE, Costill DL. Plasma lactate accumulation and distance running performance. Med Sci Sports 1979; 11: 338-344
• 7 Dill DB. Marathoner DeMar: Physiological studies. J Natl Cancer Inst 1965; 35: 185-191
• 8 Hunter SK, Joyner MJ, Jones AM. The two-hour marathon: What’s the equivalent for women?. J Appl Physiol (1985) 2015; 118: 1321-1323
• 9 Joyner MJ, Hunter SK, Lucia A, Jones AM. Physiology and fast marathons. J Appl Physiol (1985) 2020; 128: 1065-1068
• 10 Joyner MJ, Ruiz JR, Lucia A. The two-hour marathon: Who and when?. J Appl Physiol (1985) 2011; 110: 275-277
• 11 Robinson S, Edwards HT, Dill DB. NEW RECORDS IN HUMAN POWER. Science 1937; 85: 409-410
• 12 Hargiss W. 1933 https://www.oberheide.org/hargiss/1928%20KU/352/Glenn%20Cunningham1.htm#:~:text=In%20traveling%20to%20other%20cities,he%20begins%20to%20warm%20up
• 13 Jones AM, Kirby BS, Clark IE. et al. Physiological demands of running at 2-hour marathon race pace. J Appl Physiol (1985) 2021; 130: 369-379
• 14 Pate RR, Sparling PB, Wilson GE, Cureton KJ, Miller BJ. Cardiorespiratory and metabolic responses to submaximal and maximal exercise in elite women distance runners. Int J Sports Med 1987; 8 (Suppl. 02) 91-95
• 15 Lundby C, Montero D, Joyner M. Biology of VO₂ max: Looking under the physiology lamp. Acta Physiol (Oxf) 2017; 220: 218-228
• 16 Joyner MJ, Casey DP. Regulation of increased blood flow (hyperemia) to muscles during exercise: A hierarchy of competing physiological needs. Physiol Rev 2015; 95: 549-601
• 17 Peters CM, Dempsey JA, Hopkins SR, Sheel AW. Is the Lung Built for Exercise? Advances and Unresolved Questions. Med Sci Sports Exerc 2023; 55: 2143-2159
• 18 Harms CA, McClaran SR, Nickele GA, Pegelow DF, Nelson WB, Dempsey JA. Exercise-induced arterial hypoxaemia in healthy young women. J Physiol 1998; 507 Pt 2 619-628
• 19 Rankinen T, Fuku N, Wolfarth B. et al. No Evidence of a Common DNA Variant Profile Specific to World Class Endurance Athletes. PLoS One 2016; 11: e0147330
• 20 Bezuglov E, Morgans R, Khalikov R. et al. Effect of xenon and argon inhalation on erythropoiesis and steroidogenesis: A systematic review. Heliyon 2023; 9: e15837
• 21 Minson CT, Joyner MJ. Carbon monoxide inhalation for performance: Dancing with the devil?. J Appl Physiol (1985) 2024; 137: 1563-1565
• 22 Ryan BJ, Charkoudian N, Joyner MJ. Human performance augmentation: The importance of integrative physiological quantification. J Physiol 2023; 601: 407-416
• 23 Nielsen HB, Volianitis S, Secher NH. Dose of Bicarbonate to Maintain Plasma pH During Maximal Ergometer Rowing and Consequence for Plasma Volume. Front Physiol 2022; 13: 828708
• 24 Brooks GA. The tortuous path of lactate shuttle discovery: From cinders and boards to the lab and ICU. J Sport Health Sci 2020; 9: 446-460
• 25 Glancy B, Kane DA, Kavazis AN, Goodwin ML, Willis WT, Gladden LB. Mitochondrial lactate metabolism: History and implications for exercise and disease. J Physiol 2021; 599: 863-888
• 26 Hagberg JM, Coyle EF, Carroll JE, Miller JM, Martin WH, Brooke MH. Exercise hyperventilation in patients with McArdle’s disease. J Appl Physiol Respir Environ Exerc Physiol 1982; 52: 991-994
• 27 Joyner MJ, Wiggins CC, Baker SE, Klassen SA, Senefeld JW. Exercise and Experiments of Nature. Compr Physiol 2023; 13: 4879-4907
• 28 Newman EV, Dill DB, Edwards HT, Webster FA. The rate of lactic acid removal in exercise. Am J Physiol 1937; 118: 457-462
• 29 Robinson AT, Watso JC, Babcock MC, Joyner MJ, Farquhar WB. Record-Breaking Performance in a 70-Year-Old Marathoner. N Engl J Med 2019; 380: 1485-1486
• 30 Bathgate KE, Bagley JR, Jo E. et al. Muscle health and performance in monozygotic twins with 30 years of discordant exercise habits. Eur J Appl Physiol 2018; 118: 2097-2110
• 31 Holloszy JO, Coyle EF. Adaptations of skeletal muscle to endurance exercise and their metabolic consequences. J Appl Physiol Respir Environ Exerc Physiol 1984; 56: 831-838
• 32 Dudley GA, Abraham WM, Terjung RL. Influence of exercise intensity and duration on biochemical adaptations in skeletal muscle. J Appl Physiol Respir Environ Exerc Physiol 1982; 53: 844-850
• 33 Billat LV, Koralsztein JP. Significance of the velocity at VO₂max and time to exhaustion at this velocity. Sports Med 1996; 22: 90-108
• 34 Saunders PU, Pyne DB, Telford RD, Hawley JA. Factors affecting running economy in trained distance runners. Sports Med 2004; 34: 465-485
• 35 Senefeld JW, Haischer MH, Jones AM. et al. Technological advances in elite marathon performance. J Appl Physiol (1985) 2021; 130: 2002-2008
• 36 Lieberman DE, Venkadesan M, Werbel WA. et al. Foot strike patterns and collision forces in habitually barefoot versus shod runners. Nature 2010; 463: 531-535
• 37 Jones AM.. A five year physiological case study of an Olympic runner. Br J Sports Med 1998; 32: 39-43
• 38 Jones AM. The fourth dimension: Physiological resilience as an independent determinant of endurance exercise performance. J Physiol 2024; 602: 4113-4128
• 39 Aschwanden C. 2016 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tell-us-two-things-and-well-tell-you-how-fast-youd-run-a-marathon/
• 40 Joyner M. 2019 https://quillette.com/2019/11/23/what-would-it-take-to-run-a-150-marathon/