Predictive Capability of HPV and Pap Tests in Screening for Cervical Cancer over a Three-Year Follow-up

Abstract

Purpose To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS).

Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture, made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2+). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test.

Results A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2+ (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar.

Conclusions These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.

Resumo

Objetivo Comparar a capacidade preditiva do teste HPV com o exame de Papanicolau para a detecção de lesões precursoras do câncer do colo do útero, em três anos de seguimento, numa população de usuárias do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

Métodos Estudo de coorte retrospectiva de 2.032 mulheres com resultados satisfatórios para exame de Papanicolaou e teste HPV, por captura híbrida de segunda geração, realizados em estudo prévio. Foi realizado seguimento durante 36 meses por meio da busca em prontuários, Sistema de Informação do Câncer do Colo do Útero (SISCOLO) e Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM). O desfecho foi o diagnóstico histopatológico de neoplasia intraepitelial cervical grau 2 ou lesão mais grave (NIC2+). Curvas de progressão foram construídas, para o período, utilizando o método de Kaplan-Meier, com base nos resultados dos exames na entrada do estudo; e estimadas a sensibilidade, especificidade, valor preditivo positivo e negativo, e a razão de verossimilhança positiva e negativa, para cada teste.

Resultados Um total de 1.440 mulheres foram submetidas a pelo menos um exame no período de seguimento. As curvas de progressão demonstraram diferenças na capacidade de predição para NIC2+ conforme os resultados dos testes (p < 0,001), sendo expressivamente maior quando ambos os exames estavam alterados, seguido de ter apenas o teste HPV positivo. O teste HPV apresentou maior sensibilidade do que o exame de Papanicolau (88,7% e 73,6%, respectivamente; p < 0,05) e melhor razão de verossimilhança negativa (0,13 e 0,30, respectivamente). Já a especificidade e a razão de verossimilhança positiva foram semelhantes.

Conclusões Os resultados sinalizam a importância da inclusão do teste HPV no rastreamento primário do câncer do colo do útero.

Keywords

uterine cervical neoplasm - prevention and control - mass screening - papanicolaou - HPV - cohort study

Palavras-chave

neoplasias do colo do útero - prevenção e controle - programas de rastreamento - Papanicolau - HPV - estudo de coorte

Note

Research funded by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnologia (CNPq – N° 476941/2006-7; Universal Edit).

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