Methods Inf Med 2007; 46(01): 43-49
DOI: 10.1055/s-0038-1627830
Original Articles
Schattauer GmbH

The Framingham Risk Function Underestimated Absolute Coronary Heart Disease Risk in Czech Men

J. Reissigová
1   EuroMISE Centre of Charles University and Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Institute of Computer Science AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic
,
J. Zvárová
1   EuroMISE Centre of Charles University and Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Institute of Computer Science AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic
› Author Affiliations
Further Information

Publication History

Received: 18 September 2005

Accepted: 08 March 2006

Publication Date:
24 January 2018 (online)

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Summary

Objectives: The aim was to validate the Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk function with the formula by Wilson et al. (1998) in Czech men.

Methods: The validation was performed within the 20-year primary prevention study of atherosclerotic risk factors (STULONG) including 1417 middle-aged men from the Czech Republic (Prague). A total of 646 men examined in 1979-1988, and followed-up for ten years, were included into the validation study. The calibration and discrimination ability of the Framingham risk function in the Czech population were explored.

Results: The estimated 10-year risk of CHD by the Framingham risk function was 12.8% in 646 men, significantly higher than the observed risk (16.4 %), p = 0.013. The trend in the 10-year incidence of CHD was significantly increasing with quintiles of the estimated risk, p < 0.001. After the recalibration of the Framingham risk function, there was an insignificant difference between the estimated (18.2%) and observed (16.4%) risks of CHD, p = 0.320. The Framingham risk function classified men into those with and without CHD in the 10-year period with accuracy over 60%.

Conclusions: Unlike some validation studies from Western Europe, the Framingham risk function significantly underestimated the 10-year CHD risk in the Czech Republic. In agreement with these studies, the incidence of CHD was significantly increasing across quintiles of the estimated risk.