Abstract:
Pathfinder is an expert system that assists surgical pathologists with the diagnosis
of lymph-node diseases. The program is one of a growing number of normative expert
systems that use probability and decision theory to acquire, represent, manipulate,
and explain uncertain medical knowledge. In this article, we describe Pathfinder and
our research in uncertain-reasoning paradigms that was stimulated by the development
of the program. We discuss limitations with early decision-theoretic methods for reasoning
under uncertainty and our initial attempts to use non-decision-theoretic methods.
Then, we describe experimental and theoretical results that directed us to return
to reasoning methods based in probability and decision theory.
Key-Words
Expert Systems - Decision Making - Diagnosis - Probability Theory - Decision Theory
- Artificial Intelligence - Pathology
