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DOI: 10.1055/s-0043-1760825
External Validation of Three Burn-Specific Mortality Prediction Models in Adult Burn Patients at a Tertiary Care Hospital in India
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Abstract
Background Several burn-specific mortality prediction models have been formulated and validated in the developed countries. There is a dearth of studies validating these models in the Indian population. Our objective was to validate three such models in the Indian burn patients.
Methods A prospective observational study was performed after ethical clearance on consecutive eligible consenting burn patients. Patient demographics, vitals, and results of hematological workup were collected. Using these. the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), the revised Baux score (rBaux), and the Fatality by Longevity, APACHE II score, Measured extent of burn, and Sex score (FLAMES) were calculated. The discriminative ability of the ABSI, rBaux, and the FLAMES was tested using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at 30 days and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) compared. A p-value ≤ 0.05 was considered significant. Probability of death was calculated using these models. Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test was run.
Results The ABSI (AUROC 0.7497, 95% CI 0.67796–0.82141), rBaux (AUROC 0.7456, 95% CI 0.67059–0.82068) and FLAMES (AUROC 0.7119, 95% CI 0.63209–0.79172), had fair discriminative ability. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test reported that ABSI and rBaux were a good fit for the Indian population, while FLAMES was not a good fit.
Conclusion The ABSI and rBaux had a fair discriminative ability and were a good fit for the adult patients with 30 to 60% thermal and scald burn patients. FLAMES despite having fair discriminative ability was not a good fit for the study population.
Keywords
burn mortality - abbreviated burn severity index - revised Baux score - FLAMES score - mortality predictionAuthors' Contributions
Both the authors were involved in the conception of the work, data collection, analysis, and interpretation and throughout the process of the drafting and revision of the manuscript.
Note
Informed consents were taken from all the participants.
Ethical Approval
Ethical committee approval was obtained from the institutional ethics committee.
Publication History
Article published online:
31 January 2023
© 2023. Association of Plastic Surgeons of India. This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonDerivative-NonCommercial License, permitting copying and reproduction so long as the original work is given appropriate credit. Contents may not be used for commercial purposes, or adapted, remixed, transformed or built upon. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
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