Zusammenfassung
Die demographische bzw. epidemiologische Transition ist der Schlüssel zum Verständnis der Nachfrage nach Gesundheitsdienstleistungen. Während die Folgen der Überalterung der Bevölkerung in Europa ausführlich diskutiert werden, existieren bislang kaum Modelle, um die Auswirkungen der veränderten Altersstruktur in Entwicklungsländern zu erfassen. In dieser Arbeit wird ein System-Dynamics-Modell entwickelt, das speziell für ein schwarzafrikanisches Land die Bedeutung von Infektionskrankheiten sowie von chronisch-degenerativen Erkrankungen ermittelt. Mit Hilfe dieser Prognose können strategische Gesundheitsprogramme geplant werden.
The Epidemiological Transition as a Challenge for Healthcare Systems in Africa
It is hardly possible to understand the changing pattern of the demand for health care without analyzing the demographic and epidemiological transition. Thus, the aging society has been frequently subject of research in Europe. However, models predicting the impact of changing age structures in developing countries are rarely seen. This paper develops a system dynamics model which calculates the importance of infectious and chronic-degenerative diseases in a Sub-Saharan country. These forecasts can support the process of strategic health care planning.
Schlüsselwörter:
Afrika - Demographische Transition - Entwicklungsländer - Epidemiologische Transition - Gesundheitswesen - System-Dynamics-Modelle
Key words:
Africa - Demographic transition - Developing countries - Epidemiological transition - Health care - System dynamics models
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Prof. Dr. S. Fleßa
Evangelische Fachhochschule Nürnberg
Fachbereich Pflegemanagement
Bärenschanzstraße 4
90429 Nürnberg
eMail: E-mail: FlessaS@evfh-nuernberg.de
