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Semin Respir Crit Care Med 2011; 32(1): 003-009
DOI: 10.1055/s-0031-1272864
© Thieme Medical Publishers

Estimating Individual Risk for Lung Cancer

Carol J. Etzel1 , Peter B. Bach2
  • 1Department of Epidemiology, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
  • 2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York
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Publication History

Publication Date:
15 April 2011 (online)

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ABSTRACT

Lung cancer risk prediction models hold the promise of improving patient care and streamlining research. The ultimate goal of these models is to inform clinicians as to which interventions their individual patients should receive to reduce lung cancer–associated morbidity and mortality. In this paper, we discuss the history and current state of lung cancer prediction models, focusing on three models: the Bach model, the Spitz model, and the Liverpool Lung Project (LLP) model. We also discuss the prospects for further development of improved prediction models for lung cancer risk. Although current models can identify those smokers at highest risk for lung cancer, these models are presently of limited use in the clinical setting. Nevertheless, lung cancer risk prediction models can be used during study enrollment to select more appropriate study subjects, and may eventually be useful in identifying patients for lung cancer screening or to receive chemoprevention.

KEYWORDS

Risk models - discriminatory power - accuracy - clinical utility - screening - chemoprevention

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Peter B BachM.D. 

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center

1275 York Ave., New York, NY 10065

Email: bachp@mskcc.org