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DOI: 10.1055/a-2334-3584
Einfluss des Wetters auf den Schlaganfall
Influence of weather on stroke
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
Hintergrund Der Klimawandel betont die Notwendigkeit, den Einfluss des Wetters auf zerebrovaskuläre Ereignisse näher zu untersuchen. Die Studienergebnisse sind jedoch teilweise widersprüchlich. Mögliche Ursachen sind eine Studiendurchführung in unterschiedlichen Klimazonen sowie das Multiple Testproblem.
Methode 64 148 Schlaganfallpatienten wurden an den überregionalen Stroke Units in Homburg, Kaiserslautern, Mainz und Saarbrücken analysiert. Die korrespondierenden Wetterdaten wurden vom Deutschen Wetterdienst zur Verfügung gestellt. Die Beschreibung des Patientenkollektivs, der Abhängigkeit der Anzahl der Schlaganfälle von Wochentag/Monat/Jahreszeit sowie die Beschreibung des Zusammenhangs der verschiedenen Wetterfaktoren und Schlaganfälle erfolgt mittels deskriptiver Statistik. Die Bestimmung saisonaler Einflüsse wurde mittels konditionaler Poisson-Modelle innerhalb von Distributed Lag Linear/Non-Linear Models (DLM/DLNM) und einfachen Kruskal-Wallis Tests untersucht.
Ergebnisse An allen Standorten zeigte sich ein deutlicher Trend hin zu einer geringeren Schlaganfallwahrscheinlichkeit bei höheren Temperaturen. Eine hohe relative Luftfeuchtigkeit sowie Niederschlag erhöhten das Schlaganfallrisiko durchgängig zumindest tendenziell. Am Wochenende war die Schlaganfallrate an allen Standorten hochsignifikant niedriger.
Schlussfolgerung Die Analyse der Schlaganfalldaten von 4 vergleichbaren Krankenhäusern ist eine geeignete Methode zur Reduktion des Multiplen Testproblems. Das Schlaganfallrisiko wird durch höhere Temperaturen leicht gesenkt, während hohe Luftfeuchtigkeit und Niederschlag es geringgradig erhöhen. Der Einfluss des Wetters ist in Deutschland insgesamt niedriger als der Einfluss der Wochentage.
ABSTRACT
Background Climate change highlights the need to further investigate the influence of weather on cerebrovascular events. However, the study results so far are not consistent. Possible causes include conducting studies in different climate zones and the multiple testing problem.
Method 64 148 stroke patients were analyzed at the certified stroke units in Homburg, Kaiserslautern, Mainz and Saarbrücken. The corresponding weather data was provided by the Deutscher Wetterdienst. The description of the patient population, the dependence of the number of strokes on the day of the week/month/season as well as the description of the connection between the various weather factors and strokes is carried out using descriptive statistics. The determination of seasonal influences was examined using conditional Poisson models within Distributed Lag Linear/Non-Linear Models (DLM/DLNM) and simple Kruskal-Wallis tests.
Results At all locations there was a clear trend towards a lower probability of stroke at higher temperatures. High relative humidity and precipitation consistently increased the risk of stroke, at least tended to. At the weekend, the stroke rate was significantly lower at all locations.
Conclusion Analysis of stroke data from 4 comparable hospitals is a suitable method for reducing the multiple testing problem. The risk of stroke is slightly reduced by higher temperatures, while high humidity and precipitation increase it slightly. Overall, the influence of the weather in Germany is much lower than the influence of the days of the week.
Publication History
Article published online:
15 November 2024
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