Abstract:
The flow of patients through geriatric hospitals has been previously described in
terms of acute and long-stay states where the bed occupancy at a census point is modelled
by a mixed exponential model. Using data for sixteen years the model was fitted to
successive annual census points, in order to provide a description of temporal trends.
While the number of acute patients has remained fairly stable during the period, the
model shows that there has been a decrease in the number of long-stay patients. Mean
lengths of stay in our geriatric hospital before death or discharge have decreased
during the study period for both acute and long-stay patients.
Using these fits of the mixed exponential model to census data, a method is provided
for predicting future turnover of patients. These predictions are reasonably good,
except when the turnover patterns go through a period of flux in which assumption
of stability no longer holds. Overall, a methodology is presented which relates census
analysis to the behaviour of admission cohorts, thus producing a means of predicting
future behaviour of patients and identifying where there is a change in patterns.
Key-words
Geriatric Medicine - Bed Occupancy - Patient Flow - Mixed Exponential Model
