Der Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) – ein Instrument zur Kriminalprognose bei Gewaltstraftätern

Zusammenfassung

Anliegen: Die meisten Instrumente zur Beurteilung des Rückfallrisikos von Gewalt- und Sexualdelikten wurden in Nordamerika entwickelt und validiert. Methode: Ziel der Arbeit ist es, den Stand der Validierung des Violence Risk Appraisal Guides (VRAG) – einem Instrument zur Beurteilung des Rückfallrisikos bei Gewaltstraftätern – zu diskutieren. Grundlage der Aufarbeitung der Literatur bildet eine systematische Literaturrecherche. In einem zweiten Teil wird eine wissenschaftliche Übersetzung des Instruments einschließlich der Bewertungsregeln in deutscher Sprache vorgelegt. Ergebnisse: Bei der Untersuchung der Validität des VRAGs wird in der Regel auf die Trennschärfe des Instruments fokussiert (abgebildet über die sogenannte Area under the Curve [AUC]). Diese Untersuchungen zeigten eine zufriedenstellende bis gute Trennschärfe auf (AUC: 0,70 – 0,86). Eine Normierung des Instruments für Populationen in Europa bzw. für den deutschsprachigen Raum ist bisher nicht erfolgt. Nur wenige Studien haben überprüft, ob die nordamerikanischen Normwerte in Europa gültig sind. Die wenigen Studien zu diesem Thema stellen eine Generalisierbarkeit der Normwerte auf andere Länder infrage. Schlussfolgerungen: Der VRAG ist auch im deutschen Sprachraum ein valides Maß für die Beurteilung der Rückfallwahrscheinlichkeit, wobei bislang auf eine Normierung verzichtet wurde. Die Anwendung des VRAG kann erste Anhaltspunkte für die Beurteilung des Rückfallrisikos geben und in eine einzelfallorientierte Prognose einfließen.

Abstract

Objective: Most instruments used for assessing the recidivism risk of an offender with a violent or sex offense have been developed and validated in North America. Methods: The aim of this study is to discuss the state of validation for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) – an instrument for assessing the recidivism risk of violent offenders. A systematic literature research forms the basis for the processing of the literature. In a second section, a scientific translation of the instrument to German, including the scoring rules, is presented. Results: Normally, while examining the validity of the VRAG, there is a focus on the discriminatory power (displayed using the so-called Area Under the Curve [AUC]). These examinations showed a satisfactory to good discriminatory power (AUC: 0.70 – 0.86). A standardization of this instrument for populations in Europe respectively the German-speaking area has not yet taken place. Only few studies have verified whether North American standard values are also valid for Europe. The few studies on this subject question the generalizability of these standard values to other countries. Conclusions: The VRAG can be considered a valid measure for the assessment of recidivism risk in Germany and in Switzerland, although so far, standardization has been dispensed with. The application of the VRAG can provide indications for the evaluation of recidivism risk and be integrated into an individual case-oriented assessment.

VRAG - Kriminalprognose - Validität - deutsche Übersetzung

VRAG - risk-assessment - validity - German Version

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