Endoscopy 2006; 38(7): 726-729
DOI: 10.1055/s-2006-925179
Short Communication
© Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York

Predictors of peptic ulcer rebleeding after scheduled second endoscopy: clinical or endoscopic factors?

P.  W.  Y.  Chiu1 , H.  K.  M.  Joeng2 , C.  L.  Y.  Choi2 , K.  H.  Kwong2 , E.  K.  W.  Ng1 , S.  H.  Lam2
  • 1 Department of Surgery, Prince of Wales Hospital, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
  • 2 Department of Surgery and Endoscopy Center, United Christian Hospital, Hong Kong
Further Information

Publication History

Submitted 30 June 2005

Accepted after revision 13 November 2005

Publication Date:
29 June 2006 (online)

Background and study aims: In a previous study we demonstrated the efficacy of second-look endoscopy with therapy within 16 - 24 hours after index endoscopy in reducing major recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding. In this study, we sought to identify factors that might predict further rebleeding after this scheduled second-look endoscopy.
Patients and methods: We studied 249 patients (181 men, 68 women) with acute bleeding peptic ulcers who were treated at the United Christian Hospital, Hong Kong from 1999 to 2002 and who underwent a scheduled second endoscopy. Those patients who developed rebleeding after the second endoscopy were evaluated, and possible predictive factors for rebleeding were analyzed using a logistic regression model.
Results: Of the 249 patients who underwent scheduled second-look endoscopy, 17 patients (6.8 %) developed rebleeding: seven of these patients were treated by another endoscopic therapy; ten patients required surgery. The overall mortality rate was 3.1 %. A logistic regression analysis performed on the possible predictive factors for rebleeding found that the following factors were associated with a significant risk of further rebleeding after scheduled second endoscopy: American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade III or grade IV status (odds ratio 3.81, 95 % CI 1.27 - 11.44), ulcer size greater than 1.0 cm (odds ratio 4.69, 95 % CI 1.60 - 13.80), and a finding of persistent stigmata of recent hemorrhage at the scheduled second endoscopy (odds ratio 6.65, 95 % CI 2.11 - 20.98).
Conclusions: Endoscopic factors, including large ulcer size and the persistence of endoscopic stigmata of recent hemorrhage are important predictors for recurrent bleeding after scheduled second endoscopy.

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P. W. Y. Chiu, M. D.

Department of Surgery

Prince of Wales Hospital · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · 30-32, Ngan Shing Street · Shatin · New Territories · Hong Kong

Fax: +852-26377974·

Email: pwychiu@netvigator.com